Nigel Farage’s party will not last a decade, public believe

A new poll by YouGov found that 63% of people believes that the Brexit Party will “probably not be a force in British politics in 10 years”, while just 13% believe it is here to stay for the long-term.

Meanwhile 56% of people thought anti-Brexit party Change UK would disappear over the next decade, and just 10% believe it can last longer.

By contrast 70% of people thought Labour would still exist in 10 years time, and 71% believe the Tories would still be around. The Green Party – backed by 51% – was seen as the third most likely to still be around in 2029.

The poll found 45% thought the Lib Dems were here to stay.

YouGov political research manager Chris Curtis said: “The upcoming European Parliament elections will be the first outing for two brand new parties: Change UK – The Independent Group and Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.

“The data shows the public aren’t yet convinced that these newer forces will become a permanent feature in British politics, although both these parties will be hoping to prove the public wrong, and a strong showing in next week’s election could give them momentum and help them stand out in an increasingly crowded field.”

The new findings came as a general election poll found the Brexit Party had overtaken the Tories for the first time.

Farage’s party was one point ahead of the Conservatives in what would be the Tories’ worst ever result, according to the ComRes survey of voting intentions.

That level of support would see the Brexit Party win 49 seats, becoming the UK’s second biggest party after Labour, with 137.

Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, described the findings as a “disaster”, adding: “If the Conservative leadership contenders are not careful, there will be no party for them to lead.”

The poll showed the Conservatives would lose 46 seats to the Brexit Party, dethroning Defence Secretary Penny Mordaunt, Health Secretary Matt Hancock and party chairman Brandon Lewis.

And Labour would take the scalps of Boris Johnson, Iain Duncan Smith and Sir Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, with the Tories retaining support from less than half of those who voted for them in 2017.

Jeremy Corbyn would be able to lead a minority government with 27% support, leaving the Brexit Party with 20% and the Conservatives 19% support, according to the poll commissioned by Brexit Express, a campaign group run by Jeremy Hosking, a major Tory donor who now backs the Brexit Party.