Polling Figures

Despite the chaos of the fuel crisis and other pandemic- and Brexit-induced problems, Boris Johnson’s ‘competency ratings’ are still holding up, while Keir Starmer is not making huge inroads. Will the dial ever shift?

Many progressives are certain that the only hope for ending Tory rule is to replace first past the post. Polling expert PETER KELLNER is not so sure it is a good idea The case is made easily – and frequently: if we had a different method for electing our MPs, Britain would still be in […]

Leading pollster PETER KELLNER offers his analysis of why so many centre-left parties are floundering, and where their best hopes now lie Are the glory days over for social democracy? Do voters now take for granted the great progressive reforms of the post-war era – pensions, education, healthcare, social insurance etc – and see no […]

Polling expert PETER KELLNER on the long term factors behind the party’s decline, and what might help reverse it Two rival theories have sought to explain Labour’s drubbing in this month’s elections. The left accuses Keir Starmer of deserting the party’s socialist principles. The leadership fears that the party has not changed enough: it needs to […]

Alex Salmond’s Alba Party is on course to win eight seats at next week’s Holyrood election, according to a new poll. The survey also suggests the Scottish Greens will return 11 MSPs, with the SNP, Scottish Conservatives and Scottish Labour all losing seats. Polling by Panelbase for the Scot Goes Pop website found 6% of […]

Six in 10 people in Britain regard Boris Johnson as “untrustworthy”, new polling has revealed. In an Ipsos MORI survey commissioned by the Evening Standard, only 35% of voters said they trusted the prime minister, compared to 59% who did not. The findings will increase alarm in Tory circles after weeks of leaks and allegations about sleaze. The […]

An overwhelming majority of Brexit voters back closer ties with Europe on “mutually beneficial” areas such as trade, new polling has revealed. Some 60% of Leave voters said it was important the UK cooperate with Brussels to tackle climate change and deal with threats from Russia and China. The large-scale poll of over 3,000 adults conducted […]

Outspoken lockdown critic Laurence Fox is tied with an intergalactic bin in last place in the race for London mayor. The new Comres poll has Labour candidate Sadiq Khan clearly in the lead with 41% of the vote, followed by the Conservative Shaun Bailey at 28% with Lib Dem Luisa Porritt and Green Sian Berry significantly behind with […]

A new poll has suggested that people in Northern Ireland would vote to remain in the UK if a referendum was called in the present day. Of those surveyed, 49% said they would vote to stay in the UK while 43% would support a united Ireland. The remainder were undecided. The Lucid Talk poll, which […]

Armin Laschet has won the support of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party to become the party’s candidate in this September’s federal election. Laschet, who has been the leader of the CDU since January, gained the support of 77.5% of the party board to enter the race to replace chancellor Angela Merkel – a total […]

The belief that Brexit supporters were typically working-class from “left behind” red-wall seats and dilapidated seaside towns has been quashed by new research that shows half of leave voters were well off. The research, by think tank UK in a Changing Europe, draws on workshops that occurred in the summer of 2020 and shed light on the motivations […]

A new survey suggests that 60% of Labour supporters across the UK back another independence referendum “in principle” in the next few years, and 56% think the party should too. The YouGov study, which spoke to 1,073 Labour members between March 17 and March 24, found that while supporters in the rest of the UK […]

Leading pollster PETER KELLNER on the ways that public opinion on the issue has changed, and what it means for pro-Europeans. Two big lessons can be learned about public opinion since Britain’s agreement with the EU came into force in January. The first is that there has been a clear rise in support for Brexit. […]

Covid-19 has overshadowed the splits over Brexit that dominated the last general election Boris Johnson was only three months on from his December 2019 election win when a pandemic was declared. The world has changed entirely since then, and the UK has suffered enormously. More than 125,000 people have died of COVID-19. Per capita, this […]

This May will see the country’s largest round of contests outside a general election, in an extraordinary day of democracy and crucial contests Election buffs are in for an exciting spring; and for every party it will be unusually tense. For the first time since Brexit and the outbreak of Covid, millions of real votes, […]

Support for Scottish independence has taken a hit after a poll suggested a lead for the ‘no’ side following the Alex Salmond inquiry. The survey by Savanta ComRes is the first to take place after the evidence given to the Scottish parliament inquiry by Nicola Sturgeon and Salmond over the government’s handling of sexual harassment […]

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has suggested the success of the coronavirus vaccine rollout has led to the Conservatives establishing a 13-point lead over his party. He said “people want the government to succeed” during a pandemic, but conceded there is a “lot of work to do” to rebuild support. The poll by YouGov for […]

The Labour Party is mulling over a decision to add electoral reform to its manifesto after party activists vote to end the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system. More than one-quarter of Labour branches are urging Sir Keir Starmer to dump the party’s historical support for FPTP voting in favour of proportional representation. Calls for Labour to change its stance has grown over […]

The Green Party has become Westminster’s third biggest party in a new Ipsos Mori poll. The party – led by Jonathan Bartley and Sian Berry – has overtaken the Liberal Democrats in the latest polling. It now enjoys 8% of support, one point ahead of Ed Davey’s organisation. The polling finds the Tories have opened […]

Just four per cent of the public think Labour has got worse under Sir Keir Starmer, fresh polling has shown. According to an Ipsos MORI poll commissioned by the Evening Standard, 48% of participants think Labour has changed for the better under Sir Keir while 36% believed he “has what it takes” to become prime […]

Almost half of Welsh voters would rejoin the EU, a new poll has found.  Despite a Brexit deal being reached at the eleventh hour, 44% of Welsh voters told ITV News they would vote yes if EU membership was put to another referendum. By comparison, 38% would reject rejoining and almost a fifth – 19% – said […]

Labour could win up to 351 seats if it teamed up with the Greens and Liberal Democrats at the next general election, new analysis has revealed. Analysis of polling figures by pro-EU lobby group Best for Britain showed that Labour would secure just 284 seats at the 2024 elections if it went it alone. That is 42 […]

Polling expert PETER KELLNER on how the Scottish elections could supercharge the SNP’s campaign for independence. If Boris Johnson thinks that life will get easier in the spring, he should think again. Even if the current lockdown and vaccine programme both succeed, a fresh crisis is almost certain to erupt in its wake, to last […]

Despite vowing to make the case against Scottish independence, Nigel Farage’s new party could make it tougher for Unionist parties in the Holyrood elections, a pollster has warned. Professor Sir John Curtice has said the new Reform UK party in Scotland will be targeting Tory voters who backed Brexit in Scotland, making it harder for […]

Nigel Farage’s new political outfit has received just 2% of support in the first poll carried out since it launched. Reform UK – which has been shortened to REFUK by pollsters – attracted a small amount of support in new polling from Redfield & Wilton Strategies. It is currently attracting smaller backing than the Brexit […]

Despite claiming he had secured a “fantastic” trade deal with the EU for Brexit, just 17% of voters think it will be “good” for the country. The new YouGov polling found that the public enthusiasm for the deal was low – with 21% thinking it was a bad deal, and 31% thinking it was neither […]

Most Remainers want MPs to vote in support for Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal rather than vote against. Opinium polling found that with the ‘don’t know’ option removed 50% of those that voted Remain in the EU referendum support the prime minister’s deal agreed with the European Union to avoid a no-deal Brexit situation. By comparison just 19% […]

Brexit and the coronavirus crisis has seen Labour jolt past the Tories in the latest YouGov voter intention poll. Keir Starmer’s party now sits four percentage points ahead of the Tory Party gaining 41% of the vote – a four point jump from the last survey conducted on December 15-16. Meanwhile, the Tories suffered a two point dip – leaving […]